Protect the solar system from a mining 'gold rush' by creating a 'space wilderness' that preserves 88% of planets, moons and other heavenly bodies, scientists urge
- National space agencies and private firms are planning to start mining in space
- NASA estimates that the resources in the solar system could be worth trillions
- Unchecked exploitation could exhaust these resources in 460 years, say experts
- To avert catastrophe, 7/8ths of the Solar System should be initially protected
- Preserved space areas would work in a similar way to Earth's wilderness parks
Our solar system needs to be protected from an impeding 'gold rush' of space mining efforts that could leave us in a resource catastrophe in centuries, experts say.
Researchers from the US Smithsonian Institution and King’s College London argue for preserving seven-eighths of the solar system as official 'space wildernesses.'
This regulation would protect planets, moons and other bodies from unchecked mining and other types of industrial exploitation.
But its core aim would be to ensure that humankind's expansion into our star system is undertaken manageably to avoid a future where all the resources are gone.
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Our solar system needs to be protected from an impeding 'gold rush' of space mining efforts hat could leave us in a resource catastrophe in centuries, experts say. Pictured: Artist's impression of an asteroid being mined for resources
Astrophysicist Martin Elvis of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory in Massachusetts teamed up with King’s College London philosopher Tony Milligan to explore how quickly space mining might exhaust the solar system's viable resources.
The duo found that humankind would use up an eighth of the solar system's realistically-accessible resources within 400 years, assuming an annual growth rate for the space mining industry of 3.5 per cent.
This growth rate would be comparable to that found in the use of iron from the start of the Industrial Revolution until the present day.
After four centuries, we would have only 60 years to rein in the growth of the space economy before the solar system's usable resources would be completely gone.
Based on these findings, researchers are proposing that industrial exploitation of the solar system's resources be capped at one-eighth — leaving the rest as protected, wilderness-status areas.
This regulation would preserve other worlds in their natural state, free from human pollution and industry.
However, the researchers note that its primary aim would be to prevent us from reaching the catastrophic point where all of the resources in our neighbourhood have been unsustainably run dry.
'If we don’t think about this now, we will go ahead as we always have, and in a few hundred years we will face an extreme crisis, much worse than we have on Earth now,' Dr Elvis told the Guardian.
'Once you’ve exploited the solar system, there’s nowhere left to go,' he added.
The limit is needed because of the difficulties involved in estimating exponential growth, the researchers said.
Restricting initial mining efforts to one-eighth of available resources would provide a necessary buffer to subsequently switch to a steady-state economic system while still allowing for resource usage to double three more times.
While the cap may seem superficially restrictive, Dr Elvis noted that one-eighth of all the iron in the asteroid belt is at least a million times the iron ore reserves presently found on the Earth.
Such resources should be enough to meet humanity's need for centuries.
The rings of Saturn (pictured) are beautiful and almost pure water ice, said Dr Elvis, asking: 'Is it OK to mine those so that in 100 years they are gone?'
It will be challenging to decide which aspects of our star system should be protected from the space mining industry, the researchers wrote in their paper.
However, areas that might merit a 'space wilderness' status include Mars' Valles Marineris, the solar system's largest canyon in the , as well as Olympus Mons, the largest known shield volcano which is two-and-a-half times Mount Everest in height.
The assignment of protection will require much complicated debate.
'Do we want cities on the near side of the moon that light up at night? Would that be inspiring or horrifying?', Dr Elvis asked.
'And what about the rings of Saturn? They are beautiful, almost pure water ice.
'Is it OK to mine those so that in 100 years they are gone?'
NASA announced last year that the total value of all the resources locked away in near-Earth asteroids amounts to the equivalent of £77 billion ($100 billion) for every individual person on the Earth.
The most realistic targets for space miners would be asteroids, the Moon, Mars and the other rocky planets, note Dr Elvis and Dr Milligan.
In contrast, useful materials would be extremely difficult for us to extract from bodies like Jupiter, a gas giant which contains more mass than all the rest of the solar system's planets combined, or the Sun.
While certain precious metals such as gold and platinum might conceivably be hauled back to Earth, the lion's share of mined resources would likely be used out in space to build habitats for astronauts and also to make rocket fuel.
The European Space Agency is planning to construct a moon base capable of mining rocks near the lunar surface by the year 2025 (Pictured, artist's impression)
For example, the China National Space Agency has set its sights on constructing a lunar base near the moon's ice-rich south pole within the next decade. The ice will provide water for both human consumption and as a component for rocket fuel.
Similarly, the European Space Agency is planning to construct a moon base capable of mining rocks near the lunar surface by the year 2025.
National space administrations are not the only groups with their eyes on the bounties of space, with various fledgling space mining companies also ready to mine the solar system.
One such firm in the UK is the Asteroid Mining Corporation, which is hoping to launch a prospecting satellite into Earth's orbit within the next few years.
As with wilderness parks on the Earth, it may still be possible for humans to visit the protected regions, under certain limitations.
These might include such rules as only landing spacecraft in certain places, or the sterilisation of all suits, vehicles and other machines entering the park to avoid the risk of microbial shedding in the protected area.
'If everything goes right, we could be sending our first mining missions into space within 10 years,' Dr Elvis said.
'Once it starts, and somebody makes an enormous profit, there will be the equivalent of a gold rush,' he added.
'We need to take it seriously.'
The full findings of the study were published in the journal Acta Astronautica.
- How much of the solar system should we leave as wilderness? - ScienceDirect
- Protect solar system from mining 'gold rush', say scientists | Science | The Guardian
- China plans to build a MOONBASE within the next decade to serve as a refuelling station for missions out into the solar system
- Europe wants to mine the moon by 2025: European Space Agency reveals plan that could spark a new space race
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